Summary
Emerging risk processes tend to produce long lists and few decisions. A disciplined framework narrows to what could materially affect the firm and defines response beyond monitoring.
Sources
Structured horizon scanning draws on regulatory outlook, scientific and technological developments, geopolitical trends, and internal signals from underwriting, claims and monitoring.
Prioritisation
Prioritisation is on materiality to the firm — not on general newsworthiness. Filters include exposure, velocity, uncertainty and time to impact.
Response
Response options are more than "monitor": exposure limits, underwriting guidelines, coverage exclusions, capital overlays, and strategic decisions on segments. The framework should map response to prioritisation.
Governance
Emerging risk should have a standing committee item with a small, live watch-list rather than a comprehensive register.
Integration with ERM
Where an emerging risk crystallises, it should transition into standard risk management with owners, controls and MI — not remain permanently on the horizon.
Limitations
Emerging risk is by nature uncertain. The framework's job is to make judgements about uncertainty visible and revisable, not to eliminate surprise.
Related expertise
See Enterprise Risk Management and Insurance Risk & Solvency.
Frequently asked questions
What should risk leaders know about sources?
Structured horizon scanning draws on regulatory outlook, scientific and technological developments, geopolitical trends, and internal signals from underwriting, claims and monitoring.
What should risk leaders know about prioritisation?
Prioritisation is on materiality to the firm — not on general newsworthiness. Filters include exposure, velocity, uncertainty and time to impact.
What should risk leaders know about response?
Response options are more than "monitor": exposure limits, underwriting guidelines, coverage exclusions, capital overlays, and strategic decisions on segments. The framework should map response to prioritisation.
What should risk leaders know about governance?
Emerging risk should have a standing committee item with a small, live watch-list rather than a comprehensive register.
What should risk leaders know about integration with ERM?
Where an emerging risk crystallises, it should transition into standard risk management with owners, controls and MI — not remain permanently on the horizon.